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What will the year 2030 or 2050 be like? In order to anticipate the future, inputs are required to a certain extent. We request the board / project members to read books on science, geopolitics, design thinking etc. that we have selected. Based on such knowledge and the scenario planning methodology, we assist you to anticipate the future and to formulate the strategy in the long-run.
Royal Dutch Shell, a British-Dutch multinational oil and gas company, conducted scenario planning, presupposing the drastic changes in the oil supply ahead of the oil shock in 1973. While it took the industry a couple of years to adjust the production volume and 8 years to optimise the capacity, Shell took immediate actions and saved billions of dollars.
A series of work to develop scenarios about the future and identify strategic options in the future is to be conducted on a workshop basis. To stimulate the creativity and imagination, we request the project members to read the selected books on science, geopolitics, design thinking, etc. Then the project members identify and structure "driving forces" of the future to develop scenarios and to organise these ideas on matrices. After some scenarios are selected, the project members contemplate actions to take for each scenario and identify strategic options.
In 2030, a food manufacturer may develop, produce and sell completely different products from today. A construction company may have become an energy company. A railway company may be operating public transportation systems from a different scheme. Even a specialist can make wrong predictions about the future. We consider it more useful for the clients to find out the most valuable information themselves from thousands of sources and continue to think about the different future possibilities as opposed to precisely predict what the future will bring. The most important thing is that, in the event of every unpredicted development, you are able to change your hypotheses flexibly and re-determine where you should go and what you should do.